Optimising reassessment times for lung cancer screening

A person’s risk of developing lung cancer is currently estimated using 2 risk prediction tools. These tools estimate how likely someone is to develop lung cancer over a certain period. People who are found to be at high risk of developing the disease are invited for an in-person assessment and a computed tomography (CT) scan every 2 years.

People who are found to be low risk do not initially qualify for screening, but their risk may go up over time making them eligible in future. National guidance says these people should be reassessed at the time they are likely to become eligible, but it is not clear:

• When these reassessments should happen
• Who should be reassessed
• How different approaches might affect screening outcomes and use of resources

Project aims

This project aims to:

• Evaluate whether we can accurately predict when someone is likely to become eligible using simple time-based factors such as age, years of tobacco use, years since quitting etc.
• Develop and test alternative models to predict when people may become eligible for screening using two real-world lung cancer screening populations from the South-West and North-East.
• Use our findings to choose the best reassessment approach to use in clinical practice to ensure that people are not missing opportunities to participate in screening, whilst supporting efficient use of NHS resources.

What we hope to achieve

By combining real-world data with predictive modelling, our work provides evidence to support national decision-making and optimise the effectiveness of lung cancer screening pathways across England.