Forecasting exacerbations in COPD

Theme Respiratory disease

Workstream Airways diseases

Status: This project is ongoing

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations – episodes of worsening symptoms – are a leading cause of:

  • Hospital admissions
  • Premature death
  • Winter pressures on the NHS

The care currently provided to someone experiencing an exacerbation is reactive. This means treatment typically begins only after symptoms have become a lot worse.

Although we know about some risk factors associated with exacerbations, we don’t currently have a reliable method of predicting when a person is likely to become unwell.

This limits opportunities for early intervention and prevents us from truly moving towards personalised, preventative care.

Project aims

The FORESEE (Forecasting Exacerbations in COPD) project will develop and test a prototype digital health platform designed to monitor patients continuously in their everyday environments.

We will:

  • Build and pilot a prototype digital monitoring system
  • Assess the usability and acceptability of our platform among people living with COPD
  • Collect data to explore what changes before an exacerbation
  • Establish the feasibility of linking wearable and environmental data

What we hope to achieve

We hope that our work will lay the foundations for a scalable system that integrates wearable and environmental monitoring into respiratory care—an area of high unmet clinical need.

Longer-term, the FORESEE platform aims to enable more personalised care by identifying individuals at risk earlier, supporting preventative treatment strategies, and improving quality of life.